Aviation Industry Flu Pandemic Outbreak Risk Thesis

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In case of the SARS outbreak in China the public transportation wasn't shut down but the amount of passengers decreased a lot as, people stopped using the public transportation to avoid getting infected. Similarly, trends of decrease in the number of employees was noted in the air transportation such as, the flights in Pacific Asia decreased by 45% as compared to the year before and there was a decrease of 69% in the flights between U.S. And Hong Kong (Brigantic et al., 2009).

However, it can easily be estimated from these above given scenarios that if an influenza pandemic did occur and stay for 12 to 36 months what would be the amount of damage that it would cause in the world (Brigantic et al., 2009).

Continuity of Freight Distribution

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It is an established fact that an outbreak of influenza pandemic will have devastating effects on the human population on a global scale but along with that the communication and distribution networks will face serious side effects as well. It is being considered at the moment that the damage done by the pandemic to the freight distribution networks might actually cause a lot more problems than it would to the health of the people as, the world and the way it works as we know now might come to a complete halt since, the spare parts or the finished goods, fuel etc. is now essential for not only businesses but also the everyday life activities and in the past when the pandemic hit the world it didn't affect the people that much when the freight distribution networks were stopped because at that time the production and distribution was mainly on regional basis, however, now the freight distribution network cover the whole global framework and shutting it down would cause a lot of problems (Brigantic et al., 2009).

Thesis on Aviation Industry Flu Pandemic Outbreak Risk Assignment

In today's world with such advancement in the transportation the cost of transporting goods is a lot less than managing the inventories; for this reason a lot of manufacturers have moved to the lower cost locations and, because of this, now they require continuous delivery of good and all the materials that they need, therefore, closing the transportation in case of pandemic would affect the business and the economy of the world a lot more than it would have in the past (Brigantic et al., 2009).

The supply-chains that would get affected the most by this transportation shut down are:

Food: In today's world the production and distribution of the food is done by keeping the levels of inventory on a very low level in order to avoid the wastage of food. For this reason the perishable food items are there in the stores for about 2 to 5 days whereas, 1 to 2 weeks for other goods. Also, this fact has to be kept in mind that we are talking about the normal conditions here. However, in case of pandemic the food will get sold out a lot quickly as, the people will start hoarding stuff and this would result in food shortage.

Energy: The production and distribution of energy is essential for the smooth working of the world that we are living in today. The most important type of energy is electricity and about 40% of the world's electricity is produced by burning coal and from it 50% of that produced electricity is used by U.S. The electric production plants don't store a lot of coal usually they just store it for around 30 days and regular distribution of this coal is done through the coal mines. Therefore, shutting down the transportation in case of pandemic won't immediately affect the electricity but it will affect the distribution network and ultimately the production of electricity will get affected.

Medical supplies: Obviously in case of pandemic the medical supplies would be essential and their use would increase a lot. There are very specific areas where the drugs are manufactured and theses areas are controlled by a few conglomerates in the world and most of the times at a specific place only a single type of drug is created. For this reason, in case the distribution network would be shut down it would affect the medical supplies to a great extent. As, in America 95% of the drugs being used are made in other countries along with other equipments such as, respiratory machines and masks etc. therefore, in case of pandemic not only will the already present drugs be used up very quickly but there will be a constant need for more of them and not having properly working distribution networks would create a lot of problems and even more deaths (Brigantic et al., 2009).

From the above mentioned examples it can be clearly understood that the occurrence of pandemic would not only use up the existing food, energy and medical supplies but it will create a lot of hindrance in distribution and productions of new items thus affecting the supply chains (Brigantic et al., 2009).

Section 2: Previous rates of infections of some viruses

In 1918 the Spanish Flu pandemic caused a lot of deaths. Influenza A-virus strain of subtype H1N1 is what caused this flu which is a very severe type of virus and was known as the category 5 influenza pandemic (CRS, 2009).

It was noted that in both the inter-pandemic years 1911-1917 (dashed line) and the pandemic year 1918 (solid line) 100,000 people died in each of the groups (CRS, 2009).

It was from 1918-1919 that the Spanish Flu lasted, however, according to Price-Smith's data this flu might have originated in 1917 in Austria. According to the old estimated stats, around 40 to 50 million people were killed due to it. However, the new estimates suggest that all over the world there were 50 to 100 million deaths. This pandemic is suppose to have killed as many people as the Black Death and for this reason it is known as "the greatest medical holocaust in history," however, the Black Death killed around one fifth of the world, which is a lot more than what the Spanish Flu did. In case of the Black Death over 50% of the deaths occurred due to the high infection rate and it is considered that this high rate of infection was a result of the cytokine storms (CRS, 2009).

The flu was very hard to diagnose at first because of such unusual symptoms. In fact, it was because of these symptoms that initially it was thought that this was cholera or dengue. It was asserted by one of the observers that one of the things that created the most complications was the hemorrhage from the mucous membrane, which occurred not only from the nose but also from the intestines, stomach and under the skin. Along with this there were bleedings from the ears as well. Although the virus itself caused a lot of deaths but most of the deaths that occurred were due to the bacterial pneumonia which is a secondary virus that results from influenza (CRS, 2009).

The Spanish flu pandemic actually spread on a global level, it reached as far as Arctic and the Pacific Islands. This disease was so severe that it is estimated that it killed around 2 to 20% of the infected people whereas; the epidemic morality rate of the usual flu is 0.1% (CRS, 2009). Another very uncommon feature possessed by this pandemic was that it killed the young adults mostly. This can be noticed by the fact that 99% of the deaths that occurred were mainly in people under 65 and between 20-40 years of age. This was a very unusual trend as, most of the time the people who get infected or killed by influenza are the children who are under 2 years and the people who are over 70 years of age (CRS, 2009).

Although the total number of deaths is not known but it was estimated that around 1% of the world's total population died because of this pandemic. It was estimated that in the first 25 weeks approximately 25 million people were killed which is a huge amount considering the fact that HIV / AIDS has caused 25 million people to die in 25 years (CRS, 2009).

The Manchester Influenza Epidemic of 1937

The Manchester Influenza was an epidemic which never took the form of a pandemic as it was controlled by taking precautionary measures. These precautionary measures were taken by keeping the incidents of 1918 in mind. The people who did get infected were kept… [END OF PREVIEW] . . . READ MORE

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