Counterintelligence and Predicting Terrorism Sovereign A-Level Coursework

Pages: 3 (993 words)  ·  Bibliography Sources: 4  ·  File: .docx  ·  Level: Master's  ·  Topic: Terrorism

SAMPLE EXCERPT . . .

The subsequent ground invasions launched in Afghanistan and Iraq, predicted to achieve rousing strategic victories in a relatively short duration, offer demonstrable proof that "predicting discrete events in the future is impossible in an open and complex system" (Quiggin, 2006), while also illustrating the deficiencies of this approach to conducting counterterrorism and intelligence operations. By forming optimistic predictions about future events and tailoring national security strategy to these predictions, rather than adopting an anticipatory strategy founded on adaptability, the U.S. government unwittingly stumbled into a military quagmire, diverting invaluable resources to combat a seemingly infinite insurgency and squandering global support in the process.Download full Download Microsoft Word File
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TOPIC: A-Level Coursework on Counterintelligence and Predicting Terrorism Sovereign Assignment

While the calamitous conflicts still simmering throughout the Middle East provide conclusive proof that predicting future events is an untenable approach to counterterrorism intelligence, there are many circumstances which dictate the adoption of preventative strategy. The advent of the internet has enabled likeminded individuals across the planet to connect and exchange ideas on an instantaneous basis, allowing the once isolated realm of jihadist ideology to flourish under the cover of online anonymity. By monitoring suspicious activity through the use of wiretapping technology and other clandestine means, the intelligence community has gathered a voluminous amount of data concerning potential threats to national security, identifying key leadership figures and their proxies, and foiling several dozen attacks during the planning phase. Indeed, according to the Heritage Foundation "in 2009 alone, U.S. authorities foiled at least six terrorist plots against the United States (and) since September 11, 2001, at least 30 planned terrorist attacks have been foiled, all but two of them prevented by law enforcement" (McNeill, Carafano & Zuckerman, 2010). When a potential terrorist attack is prevented, however, it is essential that the reasons for this success be accurately identified before a false sense of security becomes firmly established. A consensus has emerged among intelligence experts that "with distributed terrorism threats such as homegrown jihadism, there is no key leadership cell and no key lines of command and communication" (Quiggin, 2006), and it is the ambiguous structure of terrorist networks which necessitates an anticipatory approach to combating threats. Even after dozens of planned attacks were prevented, Al-Qaeda and its affiliates continued to innovate, formulating plots involving "shoe-bombs," inciting Muslim military members to commit atrocities against their own army bases, and fomenting regional strife in an effort to destabilize American interests abroad. By adhering to a strictly predictive counterterrorism strategy, the intelligence community would effectively blind itself to the threats posed by these ancillary strategies, which is why the anticipatory approach is best suited for the demands of modern national security.

References

Kluger, Jeffrey. "Why We Worry About The Things We Shouldn't And Ignore The Things

We Should." TIME Magazine, November 26, 2006, http://ksuweb.kennesaw.edu/~shagin/080923risk.pdf (accessed February 16, 2013).

McNeill, Jenna B., James J. Carafano and Jessica Zuckerman. "30 Terrorist Plots Foiled: How

the System Worked." The Heritage Foundation Backgrounder # 2405, 11-19, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/04/30-terrorist-plots-foiled-how-the-system-worked (accessed February 15, 2013).

Quiggin, Thomas. Seeing the Invisible: National Security Intelligence in… [END OF PREVIEW] . . . READ MORE

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