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Executive Security in Southeast AsiaEssay

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¶ … supervisor for an elite executive protection team. The organization that is being protected is planning a one-week trip to Thailand. As part of the planning process for that trip, the author of this response will offer a total of six threats that can or might present themselves while the team is in Thailand. The author will offer a detailed summary of the nature of the threat, the severity potential of the threat, the probability of the threat coming to pass, the potential costs of life/property, the response that will be given to the threat as well as the time/duration, asset requirements, cost estimate and political/cultural implications of any response that might become necessary.

Risk One

Nature of Threat

The first threat that will be discussed are the regional and geographical concerns that are prevalent due to neighboring countries, nearby conflicts and so forth. Of course, Thailand is in an area of the world that is fairly chaotic and fairly conflict-stricken. It is close (or very close) to countries like Myanmar, China, India, Pakistan (and the rest of the Middle East) and so forth. One of the more major conflicts that has arisen at least fairly recently is the rise to nuclear power of Pakistan and India. Both of the countries possess nuclear weapons and this has been the case for a few years now. India is just across the Bay of Bengal from Thailand and Pakistan is just to the north and east of India. The rest of the Middle East is to the west and northwest from that spot (Riedel, 2014).

One country with problems that is a lot closer is Myanmar, otherwise known as Burma. The county directly borders Thailand and it is quite violent. They have a murder rate that is more than two dozen per 100,000 people. Indeed, they have roughly eight thousand murders a year. The political strife in that country has been quite palpable. There was a coup in 1988 and a military junta ran the country for quite a while after that. However, there was the Saffron Revolution in 2007 and that has led the way to elections in 2010 and 2012. Even so, the country is still very much around the edges (CFR, 2015).

In the other direction, up to the northeast, would be the Koreas and the situation that is mostly created by current North Korean despot Kim Jong Un. He, of course, took over when Kim Jong Il died a few years ago. Albeit crude, that country possesses nuclear arms as well and has fired a few test missiles. The range of their attack threat is fairly limited and China is nearby to sort of keep them in check. Even so, the proximity of North Korea to Thailand is a little concerning (Huessy, 2015).

Severity Potential of Threat

The severity potential is quite high when it comes to what could go wrong if a regional conflict erupts. This could hold true even if Thailand is not directly involved and even if the countries in question do not neighbor Thailand. Perhaps the direst circumstances would be the use of nuclear arms between Pakistan and India or between the Koreas. While there is some distance between both areas and Thailand, fallout and damage paths can be quite wide when it comes to nuclear arms so it could absolutely affect Thailand is the prevailing winds and weather is wrong and/or a missile goes astray due to rudimentary technology being used. The latter of those statements would apply mostly to North Korea as that country is barely functioning.

Probability of Occurrence

Overall, the areas mentioned are mostly calm right now but the players involved are quite chaotic. Even so, any flare-ups would likely be non-nuclear and regional in nature. As such, the threat to the executives is nearly zero.

Potential Costs in Terms of Life, Property & Response

The cost in terms of life and property would be huge in the extreme scenarios mentioned above but those are extremely unlikely. Unless the conflagration that happens travels to or erupts within Thailand itself, the direct threat to the executives or people in general in Thailand should be minimal.

Response Time & Duration

Barring nuclear fallout or the chance of a missile strike, the amount of time needed for response would be minimal. If the executives can be removed from the country while being kept safe, that will be done. IF that is not feasible, then they will be taken to a secure area and kept there until things settle down enough for a departure to be reasonable.

Response Asset Requirements

No special assets should be required except for accommodations to securely protect the executives if hunkering down is necessary. If that is not necessary, the normal hotel accommodations will probably suffice.

Response Cost Estimate

Little to no extra cost should be needed unless a secure location is needed.

Response Political/Cultural Risks in the Long-Term

Little to none as any conflagration from another country would almost certainly have nothing to do with the executives.

Risk Two

Nature of Threat

While the last threat talked about political and geographical issues external to Thailand, this one will talk about threats within the country. Not unlike Myanmar (Burma) used to be, Thailand is a monarchy whose power is enforced by a military junta. The current iteration of the power structure has only been in place for about a year so the political stability in Thailand is less than optimal. However, the ruling House of Chakri has been in power since the 1940's, so the monarchy leadership itself has been around for a while. There was a bloodless coup in Thailand as recently as 2006 and then again in 2014 when the aforementioned junta took over (APLLC, 2015; NPR, 2015).

Severity Potential of Threat

The threat directly to the executive is not really an issue. It is more an issue of violence and fighting breaking out and/or the leadership of the country being thrown into chaos. Even though the same overall ruling party has been in place for quite some time, it would seem their hold in power is less than firm.

Probability of Occurrence

Fairly high given that the country has had several upheavals or major political crises over the last ten years or so. Given that the executives will only be in the area for a week or so Potential Costs in Terms of Life, Property & Response

Coups and political strife could lead to a lot of different threats that may or may not impact the executive. Examples would include gun violence, shutting down of infrastructure, militant groups trying to assert their own power, looting, rioting and so forth.

Response Time & Duration

As with the prior scenario, the executive will be whisked out of the country quickly and quietly if possible. However, there will be a hunkering down in a secluded and secure area if that is not possible.

Response Asset Requirements

Accommodations that are secure (either the planned hotel or an alternate location) and the food/water needed for the people present.

Response Cost Estimate

Limited to the accommodations listed above…whatever the market rates are.

Response Political/Cultural Risks in the Long-Term

Nominal to none - the junta and such will not be concerned with the executive. They will be focused on other things.

Risk Three

Nature of Threat

The next threat to be discussed would be terrorism. While Thailand is certainly not at the top of the list when it comes to terrorism (that would be places like Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria at the present moment), Thailand is firmly in the top ten and it has been this way for the last two years. Indeed, a story by Didi Tatlow printed in January 2013 noted that Thailand was ranked number 8 on the terrorism frequency list with a total of 173 incidents and a total of 142 fatalities. This is a far cry from the totals for the top country, Iraq, which has 10 times both of those figures. However, it is still a concern (Tatlow, 2013; UK, 2015).

Severity Potential of Threat

173 incidents of terrorism in a year is quite close to one every other day and Thailand is not a very big country. Further, the areas of interest and the high-value targets for terrorists would be bustling and highly-traveled areas of import such as airports, main roads and so forth.

Probability of Occurrence

The rate cited above alone means roughly three to four incidents of terrorism will happen in Thailand while the executives are in the area, at least on average. This does not mean that it will impact the executive and his travel in any way but it will almost certainly happen somewhere in the country while the executive is there and there is at least a chance it will happen somewhere that the executive will be at some point (e.g. airport, main highway, etc.)

Potential Costs in Terms of Life, Property & Response

The biggest potential loss or cost… [END OF PREVIEW]

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