Research Paper: Globalization Trends

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Globalization Trends

Globalization means a manner in which there is a connection and spread of products, technologies and communication to all parts of the world. Sometimes, economically it may refer to the global distribution of goods and services especially when there is a reduction of hindrances such as export fee, tariffs and import quotas on the international market. Hence, it helps to bring up a country's economy through the principle of comparative advantage and increase in specialization. In other broader view, globalization may refer transnational circulation of language, ideas and culture Council & Intelligence, 2008()

Global trends over the years

Globalization Trend Analysis 2010-2015

As pertaining to demographic change across the world, the world's population will rise from 6.1 billion people as per the statistics in 2001 to 7.2 billion by 2015 a.S. Mather & C.L. Needle, 2000.

This is because people are likely to live longer and majority of them will be from developing countries. In emerging economies, countries will likely experience decline in birth rate together with a high population of the aging, hence through this there will be low unemployment rate which will translate to those still working being entitled to increased health care and pension. In some developing countries, there will be low birth rate which in the long run will reduce overdependence of the youth to their parents, hence, creating a possibility for both political stability and economic growth Miroslav Volf & William Katerberg, 2004()

By the year 2015, there will be enough food to feed the ever increasing population, but those in the sub-Saharan Africa will still be suffering from starvation due to the poor infrastructure, political instability, chronic poverty and poor food distribution network. Famine is more likely to persist in countries with oppressive government policies. In addition, with the increase in energy demand by around 50%, the energy sources will still be enough to meet the demand, with estimates suggesting that there is still 80% of the world's oil and 95% gas available for use by 2015 (Dore, 2011).

By the year 2015, technology will be the corner stone of commerce. There will be massive evolution in technology especially in the field of biotechnology, nanotechnology and material science. Biotechnology to e specific will make greater milestones in the medical field, which will enable, those who can afford the services to be able to improve their lives and increase their lifespan.

On top of all the benefits of technology, there are also disadvantage of this advanced technology where the terrorists, narco-traffickers, proliferators and organized criminal gangs will have an advantage of the high speed information systems which will enable them to interlink their criminal activities and channel their threat to stability and insecurity around the world (Dore, 2011).

Global economy, on the other hand, will be fueled by unrestricted flow of information, capital, ideas, services and goods, cultural values and people. The global economy will help to reduce political instability all over the world by 2015. Governments all over the world will have to invest more in technology, public education and wider participation, in government, to include influential non-state actors (Global Trends 2015, 2002).

Globalization Trend Analysis 2020-2025

By 2025, globalization will be largely irreversible by now and it will become less westernized, and more inclined to the developing nations since they will create significant market for companies. The world's economy will be larger by 2025, but issues will be on the disparities between companies that have financial capabilities and those that do not have. The increased number of global firms will help in the spread of new technologies, in countries which the technologies do not exist. At this period, there will be the emergence of new economies especially china, Russia, India and Brazil. Most of the projections indicate that by 2020 china's growth national product (GNP) will surpass that of individual western economic powers except that for U.S., while at this time too, India's economy will have overtaken or will be in the process of overtaking the European economies (Nye, 2000). Due to India and china's large population which will be estimated to be at 1.3 billion and 1.5 billion respectively, the standard of living of people residing in those countries does not need to match that of the western countries so as to become the economic powers. Russia, on the other hand, is said to have a likelihood of becoming one of the economic powers by at this period through to its oil and gas reserve but, there are projections that it will still be faced by severe demographic crisis from low birth rate, AIDS situation and poor medical care Miroslav Volf & William Katerberg, 2004()

There will still be sufficient reserves of energy to meet the demand for the growing population, but its supply will be faced by several hitches such as political instability in countries where it is produced. There will be growth of non-state actors and the countries/states will be willing to accommodate these actors. U.S. will remain a single most powerful actor economically, militarily and technologically, but other powers will try to challenge it now and then. Lastly, during this period, political Islam will still remain a potent force, and this force may be a source of potential conflict and unity hindrance when there is growth of jihadist ideology Kegley & Raymond, 2011()

China and India are forecasted to be the leading technology producers, and this will enable the poorest countries to acquire technology cheaply. The expected revolution involving the convergence of bio-, Nano-, information and material technology will give the two countries an upper hand in the economy. At this time, more companies will become global in nature, and those already global will advance to become more diversified and origin oriented i.e. A lot will be from Asia and less from the western side Council & Intelligence, 2008()

Globalization Trend Analysis 2025-2030.

By this period, the transport network will be efficient, and through the rapid growth in technology, more efficient and reliable transport network will be available i.e. Modern speed trains will be available globally. With the larger European Union, there will be vast migration of people to countries experiencing a high economic growth such as Russia (Nye, 2000).

The world's population will have expanded to eight billion people, and with some Asian countries having extremely large population; they will have greater economies and be of political importance. The world' energy consumption will have risen by more than a half and the fossil energy source will account for more than four-fifth of the world consumption by 2030. During this period, the economy is likely to expand at an annual rate of 1.4% and therefore, more jobs opportunities will be available in the service industry. Technological improvement during this time will aid in the provision of clean and efficient energy (Global Trends 2015, 2002).

Economic trends

A global research done on a few developing country such as Brazil, China, India and Russia, while focusing on a key features such as globalization and development in relation to attracting of investors with long-term perspective. It was found that, in the next few years, these countries could become much larger economically than they are now and more than any investors expectation. This growth rates were not only decided upon based on extrapolating the current growth rate being experienced in those countries, but also through setting out clear assumptions about how development and growth will be realized and therefore, applying that formal framework to generate long-term forecasts a.S. Mather & C.L. Needle, 2000.

These projections were done alongside long-term projections for the G6 (U.S., Japan, UK, Germany, France and Italy). With the latest demographic projection and a model of productivity growth and capital accumulation, the analysts were able to map out the income per capita, the GDP growth and the current movements within those countries' economies until 2050 (Dore, 2011).

The research found that if the projections came out as stated, Brazil, China, India and Russia could become an indispensable source of new global spending. For instance, trends show that India's economy could be larger than that for japan by the year 2032 and that of china, to be larger than the one for U.S. By 2041. By the year 2016, China's economy will be the biggest of all the countries. In relation to the G6 member states, Brazil, China, India and Russia's economies summed up together could become larger than that of G6 countries (Global Trends 2015, 2002).

In summary, here are the projected trends in Economic size, Economic growth, incomes and demographics and lastly, in the global demand patterns for the sample countries which are Brazil, China, India and Russia.

Economic Growth

Economic analyst have projections that India will be in a capacity to realizing a faster growth rate over the next 30 and 50 years. The growth is calculated to be higher than 5% over the next 30 years and nearly close to 5% as late as 2050 if development proceeds successfully Kegley & Raymond, 2011.

The growth… [END OF PREVIEW]

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