Research Paper: USA Business Cycle

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[. . .] The two large ones are the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ index. The latter is more related to high-tech and blue-chip stocks while the former is a catch-all for other types of companies. The Dow Jones average has been fairly crazy for the last few years but is currently on a strong upward trend. As with many stock indexes around the world, the Dow Jones index bottomed out in the sub-8,000 range (quite low for them) in 2008 but has risen quite strongly since then. There have been some slight valleys in the growth at least one a year but the one in 2012 was pretty slight and even the 2010/2011 iterations were not that bad. The index was at 10,000 at the beginning of 2010, about 12,000 at the beginning of 2011, about 13,000 at the beginning of 2012 and is currently at roughly 15,300 as of September 15th, 2013 (CNN Money, 2013).

The NASDAQ market has had a similar path but it is a smaller index and, thus, the figures overall are smaller. The major index level valley for NASAQ was also in 2008, with that figure being in the 1,500 range. Also like the Dow Jones index, there has been a slow and steady rise since then with brief dips happening about once a year with the worst ones being in 2010 and 2011 and the one in 2012 being much slighter. The index rose to 2,250 in January 2010, about 2,800 in January 2013 and 3,000 in January 2012. The index is currently at 3,722.18 as of September 15th, 2013 and is absolutely still on its upward climb (CNN Money, 2013).

Commodity Price Index

The Bloomberg commodity indexes, which include data from four major collectives, show roughly the same (but not identical) trends over the last year or so. When they do not intersect in terms of level, they follow the same rises and falls. As of October 2012, the index was very slightly negative but fell a bit after that in November down to negative ten percent and then back up to zero in February 2013. The trend then started back down and hovered between negative ten percent from April 2013 to July 2013. It has since been erratic through August and September 2013 going between zero and negative fifteen percent depending on the date and the index looked at (Bloomberg, 2013).

Consumer Confidence

Since mid-2012, the consumer index in the United States has been fairly chaotic and has gone both up and down in fairly large spurts. In October 2012, the index was at a score of 70 and then rose slightly in November to about 72. It then fell in the months of December and January before bottoming out in February 2013 at 60. It then spike up to nearly 70 in March and then fell back down to nearly 60 in April. However, it then rose from May to July all the way to 81.5 or so but has been flat since then through the end of August (Bloomberg, 2013).

Everything Else

The housing price index in the United States took a major hit in 2007 to 2009 because the housing market crash is the primary (but not the only thing) that caused the wide economy to tank in 2007/2008. The federal housing index to be used in the United States, at least one of them, is administered by the Federal Housing Finance Agency The chart showing the rate of change is quite telling of what happened during the Great Recession with the 2003 to 2006 rates of change being eight percent and then a huge fall to nearly negative twelve percent in 2008 and 2009 but it has since recovered to nearly where it was pre-recession. However, there was a debt in the recover in 2010 and 2011 (FHFA, 2013).

As for government debt as a percentage of GDP in the United States, the rate has been fairly reasonable for much of the recent history going back as far as the Eisenhower administration in the 1950's. There was a huge spike during World War II when it spiked to 120% of GDP but then fell steadily until the Carter Administration in the late 1970's when it was less than 40%. However, it rose sharply since then until the Clinton administration when it leveled off just above sixty percent and then fell to about 58 around the time that George W. Bush took office but has since spiked up sharply since then since the start of the Great Recession and it'ss still rising very sharply. As of around 2010, the debt to GDP ratio was 1:1 (Bloomberg, 2013).

Conclusion

Overall, the United States does set much of the trends for economic trends and ebbs/flows along with other juggernauts like China, the European Union, India and Australia. Many to most of the countries on that list had a hard fall in 2007 to 2008 but have been recovering modestly or majorly since then. There seems to be a major to cataclysmic shock to the economic business cycle about once every thirty to fifty years with the most proper examples in the 20th and 21st century coming in the 1930's, the 1970's and the 2000's. Some solid growth around the world, including in Australia and the United States, should probably show itself between now and roughly 2030 to 2040.

References

BEA. (2013, September 15). U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Retrieved September 15, 2013, from http://www.bea.gov

BLS. (2013, September 15). Bureau of Labor Statistics Data. Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject. Retrieved September 15, 2013, from http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14

Bloomberg. (2013). Commodity Futures Online Trading - Bloomberg. Bloomberg - Business, Financial & Economic News, Stock Quotes. Retrieved September 15, 2013, from http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/

CNN. (2013, September 15). NASDAQ Composite Index - CNNMoney.com. CNN Money - Business, financial and personal finance news. Retrieved September 15, 2013, from http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/

Census. (2013, September 15). Foreign Trade - U.S. Trade with Australia . Census Bureau Homepage. Retrieved September 15, 2013, from http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c6021.html

FRBSF. (2013, September 15). Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco | Total Factor Productivity. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Retrieved September 15, 2013, from http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/total-factor-productivity-tfp/

Matthews, R. (2013, September 15). PolicyMic.com. U.S. GDP is 70% Personal Consumption. Retrieved September 15, 2013, from http://www.policymic.com/articles/15097/us-gdp-is-70-percent-personal-consumption-inside-the-numbers

Rampell, C. (2013, August 29). United States ™ 2nd-Quarter Growth Is Revised Up to 2.5%, From 1.7% - NYTimes.com. The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. Retrieved September 15, 2013, from http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/30/business/economy/second-quarter-gdp-revised-sharply-higher.html?_r=0

Rushe, D. (2012, January 25). U.S.… [END OF PREVIEW]

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APA Format

USA Business Cycle.  (2013, September 15).  Retrieved June 15, 2019, from https://www.essaytown.com/subjects/paper/usa-business-cycle-report/4417013

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"USA Business Cycle."  15 September 2013.  Web.  15 June 2019. <https://www.essaytown.com/subjects/paper/usa-business-cycle-report/4417013>.

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"USA Business Cycle."  Essaytown.com.  September 15, 2013.  Accessed June 15, 2019.
https://www.essaytown.com/subjects/paper/usa-business-cycle-report/4417013.