Viewing papers 1-12 of 12 for judgment AND under AND uncertainty AND heuristics AND and AND biases

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Judgment Under Uncertainty Heuristics and Biases Term Paper

… Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Tversky and Kahneman's article Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, was published in 1974 and it occupies a pivotal place in the literature of decision making, judgment process. The core premise of this article revolves around the argument that people are not influenced as much by factual probability data as they are by cognitive heuristics when making a decision or judgment. "In general, these heuristics are quite useful, but sometimes they lead to severe and systematic errors"

The authors maintain that when a person is making a decision about something, he is likely to assign them probabilities. In the process, he will eliminate those possibilities, which have a zero probability. Once they are removed, the rest of the possibilities…. [read more]

Psychological and Socio-Cultural Theories Essay

… Greater ERN and P200 activity demonstrate a stronger bias, whereas those with lesser N200 activity demonstrate it (Payne 2001). The key to reducing the bias is to either change the automatic impulse or maximize control. For example, officers with the most firearms training demonstrate the least effects of the bias. Using cognitive strategies to reduce implicit racial associations may also be useful.

But there are several questions that come to mind based on the Payne (2006) review. First, in his original study Payne used 31 college students, 24 women and seven men, all white. The targets were all male faces. So what is he really measuring in that study, racial bias of white women against black males? Payne's findings cannot be generalized at all. There…. [read more]

Compare and Contrast the Differing Definitions of Critical Term Paper

… ¶ … integrating critical as well as thinking. But several earlier conceptualizations try to concentrate primarily on the process of thinking and avoid its important qualifier, i.e of critical. Hence they tend to give over importance to the process of thinking and reduce the importance of critical aspects. Encouraging and facilitating the process of critical thinking of students is now being considered as an increasingly significant objective for higher education. Analyzing the element of critical thinking of students is important for estimating its progress. (Cheung; Kwan; Yue, 2002) Those whose education have not trained them to deal critically with issues as well as conflicts are in fact not being enabled to interact efficiently with other people, whether be it be the same or varied from…. [read more]

Herding in Bank Panics Term Paper

… The researchers noted that "decisions under uncertainty . . . draw upon different neural processes." (Prechter and Parker, nd, p.14) Conclusions stated are reported as follows: "Depending on the circumstances, moods and emotions can play useful as well as disruptive roles in decision-making" (p. 428)." (Prechter and Parker, nd, p.14)

Prechter and Parker additionally report that over the past 3 1/2 decades "social psychologists have found that unconscious dynamics affect memory, perceptual skills, self-concept and self-evaluation, and biases and stereotypes related to race, gender and political partisanship. Socioeconomics adds financial decision-making to this list." (nd, p.14) Herding is reported to account for "human behavior in the financial realm that is anomalous to the neoclassical economic theory. The motivation of both types of behavior (financial and…. [read more]

Effects of Personality Traits on Managerial Decision Framing and Decision Errors Essay

… Personality Traits

a) The conscientious manager would frame a decision-making situation as an opportunity to set an objective to achieve, and then take the steps necessary to attain that objective. This type of manager views decision-making as part of his or her duty, and approaches the task rationally. An objective is set out, and information gathered. That information is put together rationally with the objective in mind. The decision is not made until the manager is confidence that due diligence has been conducted and the decision is the right one. In the face of uncertainty, this type of manager seeks more information to eliminate the uncertainty. This comes in the form of adjustment from an anchor (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), which constitutes the known information…. [read more]

Behavioral Finance and Human Interaction Term Paper

… Retail sales can serve as a measure of the economy's strength. Low retails sales often mean that the economy is weak, which could cause a drop in the Federal Reserve interest rates.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in the prices that consumers pay for a fixed amount of goods and services. The Federal Reserve monitors this data and uses it as a key measure if inflationary pressure on the economy. As a general rule, if the CPI's value increases, the money supply will tighten.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures economic activity. It is the output of all goods and services created by labor and property in the United States. GDP provides important information on the current economic climate.

Characteristics of…. [read more]

Unethical/Criminal Conduct Following the Equities Term Paper

… Scope of the Study

The scope of the study is far-reaching and broad, as some of what applies to the equities market can also be applied to the stock market and some of the problems that market crashes there have caused. By looking at the far-reaching implications that illegal and unethical behavior can have on those that commit them and on the others that they deal with, as well as their families, it can be seen that there are many others that are affected by one person or company decides to do.

For this study, the scope will be large in that the issues could extend much farther than they already do, but the actual amount of information studied will remain limited to the equities…. [read more]

Free Will Term Paper

… We tend too to have a more optimistic perspective of our future than is warranted, whilst we attribute our shortfalls to luck and the shortfalls of others to their character traits (and the reverse with our fortunes).

Our brain, in other words, makes us act in a certain way that is beyond our comprehension and cognizance of the fact that we are even driven in a certain direction. Many of these heuristics are formed as result of our personal experience and socialization.

Embodied Brains

Our culture makes us act in a certain way. Research, for instance, has discovered that approximately 5% of terrorist act the way they do due to the force of culture (Schor, 2008). There is the crime / violence theory that asserts…. [read more]

Global Market Research- Roles and Challenges Dissertation

… Global Market Research- Roles and Challenges

Global Market Research:

Roles and Challenges

As service organizations go on with expansion plans internationally, the need to be able to appreciate consumers in distant places is increasing. Marketing research is an important mechanism through which service companies comprehend their current in addition to potential customers. As service organizations mull over the global marketplace, there is rising demand for managers to understand customer behaviour in numerous countries. This dissertation aims to discuss the significance of market research information in emerging a market orientation and its impact on global service companies. Extensive literature is reviewed and talked about pertaining to the interrelationships among market research, market orientation and client relationship management (CRM)-related matters. The dissertation goes on discuss analytical approaches…. [read more]

Childcare and Productivity Term Paper

… Business

Using Gelso (2006), Harlow (2009), Stam, (2007, 2010), Wacker (1999), and five additional peer-reviewed articles from your specialization, discuss scholarly views on the nature and types of theory. Compare and contrast at least three views of what constitutes a theory, including the view you will use in Part 3 of this question. Be sure to distinguish theory from related concepts, such as hypothesis, paradigm, model and concept.

Using Ellis & Levy (2008), Harlow, E. (2009), and five additional peer-reviewed articles, review the scholarly literature on the relationship between theory and research and the ways research (quantitative and qualitative) can contribute to the theory. Discuss at least three ways research can contribute to theory.

Pick a theory (in one of the views of what constitutes…. [read more]

Rene Descrates Once Said Cogito, Ergo Sum Book Report

… Rene Descrates once said Cogito, ergo sum (I think, therefore I am), pointing out how the process of thinking proves the very existence of the individual. The though process is as such quintessential and it is present in a variety of forms; Daniel Kahneman (2012) approaches the process in his book "Thinking, fast and slow" in terms of the systems of thought. According to him, there are two systems, one which is faster, emotional and based on intuition, and one which is slower, logical and more deliberative.

In Frames and reality, Kahneman reveals the relativity of truth and meaning. In other words, he points out how two seemingly different statements might have the same meaning, but also how the same meaning can have different significance…. [read more]

Voting Behavior Suffrage Term Paper

… A foresighted electorate can induce policies with benefits that endure beyond the next election. In this light, the traditional model may need to be revised about the criteria that connect the electorate, politicians and public policy. Aggregated forecast goes beyond the individual talents of members. To the extent that the mass public's political evaluations of the present depends on how the future is modified, politics may be grounded less on everyday life and much more firmly on the reach of the human imagination (Mackuen).

The results of the 2000 election put an end to the assumption that economic considerations always decided the impact of presidential elections (Norrander and Wilcox 2002). It indicated that economic evaluations possess changing dynamics, which led the voters to decide that…. [read more]

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