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Causality, Etc. Prediction and Theoretical Term Paper

… In time and space; A must also still be present when B. reacts to A, and A must be absent when B. is non-reactive. More formally, these are called necessary, sufficient and contributory causes. If we observe a B, then we must have an A implied to cause B (necessary); if A is a sufficient cause of B, then there must be A and B, but there could also be C. And D (sufficient); and A contributes to B, but so might X ad infinitum (contributory). Social science uses this as a way to plan models or predict statistical events that may or may not occur for individuals or populations. Oftentimes, this is particularly valuable in order to go back to source or more original…. [read more]


Future: Prediction's in Huxley's Brave Essay

… The use of drugs to deal with stress and unpleasantness is common today, and it is common in the novel as well. Lenina tells Bernard that "One cubic centimeter cures tweleve gloomy sentiments (75)," and she herself has to cope with the sight of the natives with an extremely large dose of the drug. Soma is also used to kill Linda, who has no use in the new world, and is killed off pleasantly and painlessly, an ominous plot line that foretells issues about palliative care and assisted suicide that are discussed today.

From the textual examples discussed above, one can see that many themes of Aldus Huxley's Brave New World are still highly relevant to today's society. Biological engineering, the fear of ugliness and…. [read more]


Prediction Essay

… 38; median = 3.3; mode = N/A (all values at the same frequency); variance = .692889; standard deviation = .263228; kurtosis = -1.2189; skew = .182109; range = 2.5; sum = 38.3.

Higher reaction time memory score group: being = 9.24; median = 8.85; mode = 9.5; variance = 5.004889; standard deviation = 2.237161; kurtosis = 6.86883; skew = 2.443916; range = 7.9; sum = 94.2.

Aside from the obvious difference is one would expect when separating groups into low and high scores (e.g., higher/lower mean, median compared to the overall group results, different sum, etc.) there are a couple of interesting differences here. First, the lower reaction time group does not have a specific mode (although scores in the distribution at the same frequency…. [read more]


Religion in God We Trust, E Pluribus Term Paper

… Religion

In God We Trust, e pluribus Unum -- the two major strands of American religious thought?

The predominant philosophical strain of American religious and political thought, according to the French Alexis de Tocqueville can be summed up as a philosophy of pantheism, pluralism, materialism, and above all, of the tyranny of the American democratic majority. Tocqueville suggested that Americans, and most citizens of socially equal societies (or relatively socially equal societies, as compared to the Europe of Tocqueville's day) inclined towards the line thought of "including God and the universe in one great whole," or a pantheistic philosophical system that taught "all things material and immaterial, visible and invisible, which the world contains are to be considered only as the several parts of an…. [read more]


Is the Internet Changing the Way We Think? Research Paper

… ¶ … Internet Changing the Way We Think?

Today, the internet has become a conduit of sorts for the exchange of information from all corners of the world. In a big way, the internet continues to ease access to information from a variety of sources. This is largely desirable. However, there are those who are convinced that such convenience has come at a price. With that in mind, questions are being raised on how the internet is impacting on our capacity for both contemplation and concentration.

In a way, the internet is increasingly becoming addictive for most people. According to Tun and Lachman, "...surveys show that adults of all ages have embraced the computer and the internet…" (560). Further, as GreenBlatt notes, were individuals to…. [read more]


Economic Efficiency Right Essay

… S. economy billions of dollars a year. Clearly, in an allocatively efficient market, such externalities would not exist, there would be no monopolies, and consumers would not lack for information (they would all be trained doctors, and have access to their own medical records and academic journals for the latest information).

Policy Recommendations

If the government wanted to seek allocative efficiency in health care, the ACA will not do that. Obviously, the Act is seeking to reduce the negative externalities associated with low information (by setting up information exchanges), poor bargaining power of buyers (by setting up insurance exchanges) and lost productivity at work (by insuring tens of millions of previously uninsured Americans). Whether any of these things comes to pass is not known yet,…. [read more]


SPSS Data Analysis American Heart Association Prediction Term Paper

… SPSS Data Analysis

American Heart Association Prediction of Stroke Risks

Over a ten-year study, the American Heart Association collected data on age, blood pressure level, and smoking information in order to calculate the risk of strokes within the sample population. Within the context of this study, risk is interpreted by the probability (times 100) that the patient will have a stroke over the next ten-year period. With those who smoke, there is a dummy variable assigned to correlate the data. In this case a 1 indicates a smoker, and 0 indicates a nonsmoker.

Data Set

Risk

Age

Blood Pressure

Smoker

Using the data, develop an estimated regression equation that relates the risk of a stroke to the person's age, blood pressure, and whether the person…. [read more]


Food Prices Heading Essay

… Even as heat destroyed the wheat crop in northern Europe, catastrophic rain storms drowned the wheat crops in Australia, limiting both internal and external harvests, even as similar increases in the average rainfall as well as the severity of storms to cause similar damage in Pakistan. Unusually hot periods have also led to drought in China, which in turn will lead to a reduced wheat harvest in that country (Peters, 2011).

It should be noted here that the term "global warming" has been changed to "climate change" to reflect the fact that the changes in the world's climate brought about by the human use of fuels and processes that increase the carbon dioxide in our atmosphere increase both temperature itself as well as a plethora…. [read more]


Methods Used for the Prediction of Bankruptcy Research Paper

… This section of the paper discusses the various models that are used for bankruptcy prediction.

1. Discriminant analysis

Discriminant analysis operates by trying to develop a linear combination that consists of two or more variables and has the ability to discriminate between two priori defined grouped in an effective and efficient manner. This discrimination is achieved through the deployment of a statistical rule that maximizes the variance that exists between the groups relative to the variance that exists within the group. (Karamzadeh, 2013)

The above mentioned relationship is expressed in the form of ratio of between the group and within the group variance. (Back & Laitinen et al., 1996) The linear combination is derived by the discriminate analysis on the basis of an equation that…. [read more]


Planning: USDA's Focus on Its Future Strategies Term Paper

… ¶ … Planning: USDA's focus on its future strategies

The concept of risk

Scenario 1:'no major future changes' in the external environment.

Scenario 2: 'negative future changes' in the external environment

Scenario 3: 'positive future changes' in the external environment

Critically evaluate the contribution that scenario planning can make to effective strategic management. Draw on relevant theories and examples to support your arguments.

The concepts of scenarios and scenario planning

Vision-Driven scenarios and its application in strategic planning

Decision Driven Scenarios

The stickiness of information

In this paper, we use scenario planning as a strategic management tool to be used in the proactive and predictive identification as well as mitigation of risks associated with the U.S.A.'s food supply chain as well as the operations of…. [read more]


Orwellian World the Accuracy Term Paper

… It is highly significant therefore that,

Winston could not definitely remember a time when his country had not been at war, but it was evident that there had been a fairly long interval of peace during his childhood, because one of his early memories was of an air raid which appeared to take everyone by surprise. Perhaps it was the time when the atomic bomb had fallen on Colchester. He did not remember the raid itself, but he did remember his father's hand clutching his own as they hurried down, down, down into some place deep in the earth, round and round a spiral staircase which rang under his feet and which finally so wearied his legs that he began whimpering and they had to…. [read more]


Future of the U.S. Economy Research Paper

… These changes will be fueled by the underlying economic factors and policies as well as attempts to improve the country's economic conditions. The average probability of the above three scenarios to take place in America's economy is 33.3% because of the differences in the probability of each scenario to occur. One of the major factors that will have significant effects in the probability of these scenarios to happen is economic policies by the Obama Administration. Generally, policy decisions have significant impacts on the country's budget outlook and economic conditions. These predictions are made on assumptions that Barak Obama's economic policies would remain the same over the next year.

In conclusion, the United States economy continues to experience relatively slow economic growth as it recovers from…. [read more]


Terrorism the Efforts to Outdo Essay

… The most sensitive and instantaneous effects turned out to be the shock as well as the loss of innocent life. This was followed by the affected economy due to the damage, air travel disruption, as well as increasing uncertainty security wise and world financial markets. A number of recommendations were highlighted in the report on the 9/11 recovery operation and it was very clear that thousands of people suffered adverse and mental health effects in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attack. Whereas a good number have regained their health, others keep on experiencing tough times from a variety of circumstances that are linked with WTC exposure, including greater and minor respiratory infirmity as well as rational health state like Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).

While…. [read more]


Presidential Election Poll Data 2012 Essay

… Undecided voters can often play a huge role in presidential elections, and many candidates spend a lot of time and money trying to sway these voters into their camp. The poll in question was an important tool, not only to gauge the beliefs of a small portion of undecided voters, but also highlighted how damaging some recent comments were Romney made in a fundraising speech in regards to how undecided voters viewed him as a candidate. Recently, Romney made a comment regarding how 47% of Americans did not pay income taxes and were "unwilling to take responsibility for their own lives" (Rainey 2012). The insult was directed at Obama supporters, using numbers from a previously conducted poll showing the president's dominance in the race. The…. [read more]


Psycholinguistics and Threat Prediction Discussion Chapter

… Psycholinguistics and Threat Prediction: Analyzing the Words That Hurt

The purpose of the study is to conduct research into actual language and see what constitutes a presage of violence and what does not. The applications are valuable and obvious in the field of psycholinguistics. Within the study, several approaches including game theory, threat simulation theory, options theory, lexical features, phonological features and finally syntactic features in order to answer the following questions.

What is threatening language?

Are there specific levels of escalation within threatening language?

How can these levels of escalation be determined through the language used?

How does escalation of language lead to an actual violent act?

Within the scope of the research, there is especially a huge amount of work to be carried…. [read more]


Accuracy of George Orwell's Predictions Term Paper

… Ironically Orwell portrayed the follies of communism in Animal Farm and yet the perceived peril of communism tilted his view of the world, as it might look 35 years in the future. In this article, I will show how logical and obvious were Orwell's conclusions and how 35 years would seem to be such a long time when less than 35 years had seen two World Wars, the Great Depression, the rise and fall of Hitler's Germany and imperial Japan, and the rise of world wide communism.

Sources

Bloom, Harold. "George Orwell." New York: Chelsea House, 1987.

Davis, Robert Gorham. "Ten Masters of the Modern Essay: Forster, Lawrence, Huxley, Orwell, Auden, McCarthy, Baldwin, and Gold." New York: Harcourt, Brace, & World, 1966.

Gross, Miriam. "The…. [read more]


Contrarian Investment Strategies Thesis

… Contrarian Investment Strategies

Over the last several decades a number of different investment strategies have evolved. All of them were designed to help investors be able to successfully time the up and down moves, that occur on the world equity markets. However, the overall results have varied dramatically as investors, traders and analysts argue about which theory is the best one to achieve this objective. At the heart of this argument, is the belief that the markets will overshoot in both directions. Where, some will claim that the markets reflect all expectations and available information in the price of the stock (commonly called the Random Walk Theory). This makes it impossible to determine if the markets will move up or down-based past market conditions. While,…. [read more]


Future of Project Management Term Paper

… Future of Project Management

In many respects the evolution of project management parallels the development and continual validation of leadership theories, often corresponding to comparable timeframes. In the analysis presented in the Current State of Project Management Research: Trends, Interpretations, and Predictions (Kioppenborg, Opfer, 2002) the author has completed a meta analysis of the progression of product management as a discipline through several generations of thought leadership and research. This analysis will evaluate why the scholarly focus of study has shown the shift from a systems perspective to a leadership and organizational behavior one (Kioppenborg, Opfer, 2002). There has also been continual debate of whether project management is a social science or not, and if so if it bounded by the general theory of project…. [read more]


Speece, Deborah L Essay

… 9% Caucasian,1% Asian,4% biracial, 3.1% from unknown race). This means that indeed the sample selection criteria employed by the authors was good. The use a special inclusion criteria mean that the authors were very mindful of the quality of data obtained (all students must be able to speak English as their primary language).

Page 262, Measures, the second paragraph in the right-hand column up to the continuation paragraph on Page 265, flowing from Page 264 and situated on the right hand column of page 265: (Page 252-265) In this section, the authors affectively explores various measure to be used in the study. The authors did a commendable job in presenting the reliability and validity of these measures and thereby giving them the margin of error…. [read more]


Issues of Global Overpopulation and Food Supply Can We Feed the World Term Paper

… ¶ … Overpopulation [...] overpopulation and the food supply, two global issues facing the world's population today and in the future. The Earth's population is expanding faster than it has ever grown before, and with this overpopulation comes the need for more food and food sources. The poor in overpopulated countries often go hungry, and as populations increase, the implications for global hunger grow along with them. Can we feed the world, or can the world develop enough food sources to feed itself? These are compelling questions that must be answered to end world hunger in the 21st century, even if overpopulation continues to plague the planet.

The United States is one of the world's largest food producers (Cook 5). As such, we have a…. [read more]


Wal Mart Capstone Project

… (Thomas, 2011) Moreover, Wal Mart needs to train the staff in understanding the different products and offer customers with some kind of warranty. (Roberts, 2012) If this takes place, the employees will be more knowledgeable and can create better value. This will improve the brand image of the firm and increase sales. (Roberts, 2012)

Evaluate Wal-Mart's cash position. Articulate its ability to invest in capital projects in future years.

Wal Mart has the ability to continually generate consistent amounts of cash. The funds are used to invest in other projects that will expand the earnings results. For instance, the operating income generated over the last three years is showing that the firm has realized increases of around $1.5 billion per year to their cash position.…. [read more]


Mediator and Moderator Effects Applied Article Review

… We also claim that there are conceptual implications of the failure to appreciate the moderator-mediator distinction. Among the issues we will discuss in this regard are missed opportunities to probe more deeply into the nature of causal mechanisms and integrate seemingly irreconcilable theoretical positions. For example, it is possible that in some problem areas disagreements about mediators can be resolved by treating certain variable as moderators. (Baron & Kenny, The Moderator-Mediator Distinction, 1986)

There task for such distinction is still incomplete as the Frazier piece is written eighteen years later and the distinction still has not been made -- and they introduce considering these terms on three levels: conceptual, strategic, and statistical. (2004) Considering mediators and moderators in the ways proposed by Frazier et al.…. [read more]


David Foster Wallace Term Paper

… But in some sense, this is something that has only begun to be acknowledged recently -- Malcolm Gladwell has noted that, until the 1990s, our idea of what education entails tended to be viewed in a top-down way, in which the example set by adults was thought to be more influential on the learning process than peer behavior, and he quotes education researcher Judith Rich Harris stating "Adolescents aren't trying to be like adults -- they are trying to contrast themselves with adults" (Gladwell 1998). But in some sense, this means that group behavior is always going to be a huge pressure on the individual's thoughts and beliefs, despite Wallace's conviction that it is the self and self-centeredness that provides a bigger prison for us.…. [read more]


Fukuyama, Huntingdon, Friedman Reaction Paper

… But for Friedman, it is the irreversibility of the technological changes wrought by capitalism that are most important for analysis: the increased level of connection offered by the internet is now the most important fact, and for Friedman the ability to live life both free and informed will be the result.

The first two months of 2011, though, have offered events which test the ability of any of these three men to assess large scale political change. The uprisings throughout the Arab world, which followed the intransigence of Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak in the face of popular protest, but which quickly transferred to other countries throughout the region and now focuses on Khadaffi's Libya, are hardly predictable by either Fukuyama or Huntingdon independently. For what…. [read more]


Multivariate Analysis of Parametric Data Essay

… Maddox's research design involved a qualitative analysis of consumer behavior in regard to their usage of Web sites for the purpose of gathering prescription drug information as well as product requests. The research design involved the use of a questionnaire to measure the research questions. The questionnaire was placed online on a website belonging to one of the major pharmaceutical firms for a 2-week period., the responses were rated on a five-point (Likert) scale that ranged from 1 for very unimportant or unlikely to 5 for very important or likely.

Do you agree with the following statement?

Maddox (1999) should have used a Repeated Measure ANOVA to test for differences (based on AGE and GENDER) in the set of responses.

No.It would have been better…. [read more]


Cholera in Somalia: Resources Research Paper

… 4-5). Hand washing is also effective, especially when preparing food. Two WHO-recommended vaccines have been shown to be 60% and 67% percent effective against 01 El Tor, or 01 El Tor and 0139 strains, respectively. Both could be used to produce a 'herd effect' if only a portion of the at-risk population is vaccinated, and the latter vaccine is cheap enough (U.S.$2 dollars) for use in developing countries.

WHO Cholera Case Study: Somalia

During the first 31 weeks of 2011 there were 4272 cases of acute watery diarrhea (AWD) at the Banadir Hospital in Mogadishu, Somalia, of which 75% were children under the age of 5 (WHO Somalia, 2011). This rate is a reflection of what is occurring throughout Somalia, because health care personnel are…. [read more]


Biases in Person Perception-Self-Verification Term Paper

… Pasupathi, P. & Rich, B. (2005) Inattentive listening undermines self-verification in personal storytelling. Journal of personality 73(4).

Pasupathi & Rich (2005) examine the difficulty that individuals can face during the process of self-verification. Much of the research undertaken in this area assumes that individuals are generally capable of performing the actions (and cognitive steps) that are required for them to come to a point of self-verification. When individuals fail to achieve self-verification it is because of an external force, primarily an individual whose psychological or social force overruns the power of the subject to create and maintain a sense of self-verification. Pasupathi & Rich (2005) dispute this.

Pasupathi & Rich (2005) found that "storytelling is a socially situated, contextualized activity that is necessarily dynamic and…. [read more]


International Marketing We Are a Cosmetics Company Essay

… International Marketing

We are a cosmetics company based in Australia that operates a differentiated strategy. The German market is one of our main targets for potential expansion. As the third-largest market for cosmetics in the world, Germany has significant potential, but the market growth is slow and the demographic trends unfavourable. Furthermore, competition is intense, meaning that it may be difficult to gain significant market share.

We have some strengths that we can leverage, however, in order to enter the German market. Our product is of high quality and our company may have appeal as an exotic player in a market dominated by European firms. However, because our brand is unknown we must take steps to build the brand, requiring an extensive promotional program. We…. [read more]


Iraq Should We Leave or Should We Stay Term Paper

… U.S. In Iraq

ARGUMENTATIVE ESSAY: SHOULD the U.S. WITHDRAW FROM IRAQ

The United States launched Operation Iraqi Freedom in early 2003, primarily because reliable intelligence information announced by Secretary of Defense Collin Powell established beyond any reasonable doubt that Saddam Hussein was actively pursuing weapons of mass destruction (WMD), nuclear weapons, in particular.

According to Secretary Powell, our intelligence efforts had identified some of the tell-tale signs of assembling the uranium enrichment facilities; specifically, high-grade industrial tubes needed to construct the series of centrifuges used to extract fissionable uranium (U235) from natural uranium ore (U238) and to enrich low-grade 4-10% pure uranium 235 used in civilian nuclear reactor cores to 90+ percent purity highly enriched uranium used only in fission weapons (Allison 2004).

Secretary Powell…. [read more]


Philosophy: Enlightenment and Fahrenheit 451 Term Paper

… Other pumped all the blood from the body and replaced it with fresh blood" (Bradbury 14-15). The operators are not phased by the events of the evening, they are just systematically doing a job. Another example of how the machines control reason in this society is apparent in Mildred's need for the television parlor to be complete so she can visit with her television families. She finds more joy in interacting with them than her husband and allows the script to do her thinking. Having the four wall installed will bring this made-up world closer to reality for her and therefore causing her own isolation.

Montag meets a young woman who remembers when books were not burned. Clarisse acts as a catalyst for change and…. [read more]

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